AmCham Update Vol. 7 #072

Coal Corruption Standoff in Jakarta, Purbaya Expects 2026 Tax Shortfall, Indonesia Consumer Confidence Down, OJK Issues New Carbon Trading Regulation, WTO Panel Rejects Most Indonesian Claims on EU Anti-Dumping Duties

Jul 10, 2026

Coal Corruption Probe Escalates into TNI-AGO-Police Standoff

A messy standoff has developed between National Police investigators, the Attorney General’s Office and the Indonesian military revolving around police allegations of corruption in coal procurement.

The tension became public on July 9, after the police launched a corruption investigation that reportedly targeted an assistant attorney general and fueled speculation of a standoff between the police and the AGO. Earlier on July 8, dozens of armed TNI soldiers went to guard the South Jakarta home of Febrie Ardiansyah, the Assistant Attorney General for Special Crimes. TNI soldiers were also seen at other locations related to the investigation, according to Tempo.

The deployment came after the National Police (Polri) expanded an investigation into alleged corruption and money laundering involving coal procurement for the State Electricity Company (PLN) and conducted raids across Jakarta and West Java that uncovered cash and gold worth an estimated Rp 543 billion ($30 million).

The National Police Anti-Corruption Corps raided Cafe de’CLAN Signature and a money changer in Cipete among other locations on July 8-9. Police believe shady dealings in the coal trade contributed to widespread electricity blackouts across parts of Sumatra, Kalimantan and Java that caused state losses of Rp 5 trillion (US$276 million).

At Cafe de'CLAN Signature, investigators discovered a concealed steel safe hidden behind a cabinet containing nearly Rp 60 billion in cash, including Singapore dollars, US dollars, and rupiah. At a residence in Sentul, West Java, investigators found a second hidden safe containing 74 kilograms of gold bars, $4.77 million, SG$ 14.08 million, and Rp 100 million in cash, with an estimated total value of Rp 476 billion.

Meanwhile, social media accounts were filled with memes depicting the stand-off as a parody of Star Wars.

Political analyst Yoes Kenawas of pollster Lembaga Survei Indonesia said on July 9 that the case revealed deep rivalries “not only between the AGO and the police, but also between the military and the police.”

“If such displays of rivalry continue, it risks developing into an open conflict and could create an impression that President Prabowo has lost control over his own institutions,” Yoes added.

Inspector General Totok Suharyanto, the head of the Police Anti-Corruption Corps, said the investigation is at a preliminary stage. No suspects have been named.

The AGO said it respected the police investigation and would await its outcome. "All legal proceedings must be carried out by applying the presumption of innocence," AGO spokesperson Anang Supriatna said on July 9.

TNI Information Center Chief Brigadier General Muhammad Nas said in a press conference on July 9 that the deployment of personnel to guard Febrie's residence was carried out at the AGO's request and was unrelated to the police investigation.

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Purbaya Expects 2026 Tax Revenue Shortfall despite Strong First-Half

Despite strong first-half growth in tax revenue collections, the government expects 2026 to end with a Rp 47 trillion (US$2.6 billion) shortfall, according to Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.

Appearing before DPR Commission XI, Purbaya said tax revenue grew 24.6 percent year-on-year (yoy) to Rp 1.03 quadrillion in the first half of 2026, 44 percent of the full-year target of Rp 2.35 quadrillion.

This was “not as ideal as many people expected,” Purbaya said, “but it’s a significant increase nonetheless.”

“We’ll keep trying to improve it going forward without increasing tax rates… and we’ll conduct stricter discipline in tax collection,” the minister said on July 7.

Tax collection in the first half of 2025 was weak, largely because the new tax administration system, Coretax, misfired. The system “still has faults,” Purbaya said, but is greatly improved and helped increase tax revenue.

Collection growth in the first half was seen across the board, with value-added tax and luxury tax income surging 42.2 percent yoy, which Purbaya said “demonstrated economic recovery.”

Corporate and individual income tax revenue increased by 28.6 and 13.6 percent yoy, respectively. Trade accounted for the strongest annual growth at 45.9 percent, thanks to rising oil prices and increasing prices for crude palm oil, a key Indonesian export commodity.

Mining industry collection also grew by 22.8 percent yoy and manufacturing tax growth was up 20 percent.

Despite the strong increases, Purbaya said full-year collection might only reach Rp 2.31 quadrillion, Rp 47 trillion short of the target set in the 2026 state budget.

That forecast is based on a ministry estimate for full-year tax revenue growth of 20.5 percent, but Purbaya remained optimistic, saying state revenue will exceed the target by Rp 55 trillion due to stronger-than-planned nontax revenue, including royalties from commodity production.

Meanwhile, a lengthy Bloomberg investigationpublished on July 10, showed that many Indonesian tycoons, fearful of the current government’s heavy handed approach to revenue generation, have begun quietly moving their money abroad to evade government demands.

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Consumer Confidence Down in June, BI Reports

The consumer confidence index (CCI) slipped to 117.8 points in June from 120.9 points the preceding month, according to a monthly Bank Indonesia survey released on July 8, suggesting households may be less willing to consume in the coming months.

The index is still well above the 100-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism. BI spokesperson Ramdan Denny Prakoso said in a press statement that the CCI demonstrated that confidence “in economic conditions is maintained.”

Nonetheless, the CCI has been trending lower since January and is close to the multiyear low of 115 points registered in September 2025. The CCI was at a high point of 127 points in December and has since dropped from month to month, with the exception of a brief respite in April due to the Idul Fitri spending boost.

The consumer expectations subindex, which reflects views on the economy over the next six months, dropped across all three of its components: income, job availability and business expectations. The business expectations component was at 121.2 points, the lowest since September 2022. The retail sales index (RSI) was projected to drop in June to 221.6 points from 223.5 points a month prior, according to preliminary BI data, marking the weakest reading since October last year.

The drop in both consumer confidence and retail sales comes after BI hiked its policy rate by 1 percentage point since May, causing an increase in borrowing costs.

Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia wrote in an analysis on July 8 that households would have to adjust to higher borrowing costs over the coming months. “Although higher rates have helped macroeconomic stability and provided some support [for the rupiah], tighter financials will weigh on household borrowing and discretionary spending. The decline in confidence toward durable goods purchases reflects consumers' increasing caution on big-ticket expenditures as financing costs rise,” they wrote.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Composite Index closed largely flat on July 10, up 0.20 percent to 5,924.36. The rupiah is still trading below 18,000 to the US dollar.

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OJK Issues New Carbon Trading Regulation

The Financial Services Authority (OJK) has issued POJK Regulation 10/2026 concerning Carbon Trading through the Carbon Exchange. The regulation is intended as the foundation for strengthening the national carbon trading mechanism ahead of the operation of the Carbon Unit Registry System (SRUK).

The head of the Department of Surveillance and Policy of the Integrated Financial Services Sector of the OJK, Agus Firmansyah, said the new regulation is a change to POJK 14/2023 and was promulgated on July 6.

"The issuance of POJK 10/2026 is carried out as part of OJK's policy to support the government's strategic policy in the implementation of carbon economic value instruments and national greenhouse gas emission control," Agus said on July 9.

One of the main changes, is the obligation of all carbon units traded through the carbon exchange to be recorded in the Carbon Unit Registry System (SRUK). This replaces the previous mechanism using the National Climate Change Control Registry System (SRN PPI).

In addition, OJK also expanded the types of carbon units that can be traded on the carbon exchange, including regulating the trading mechanism of carbon units that originate from abroad and have not been recorded in the SRUK.

The regulation also strengthens consumer protection in accordance with OJK regulations regarding protection for all parties involved in carbon trading through the carbon exchange.

During the transition to full use of the SRUK, OJK allow carbon unit trading to be recorded in the electronic systems owned by the relevant ministries.

The transition period is valid for a maximum of three months from July 6 or until the SRUK begins fully operational.

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WTO Panel Gives Indonesia the Cold Shoulder over EU Anti-Dumping Duties

A World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute panel largely rejected Indonesia’s challenge to European Union anti-dumping duties on Indonesian fatty acid imports, while finding limited violations in the European Commission’s calculation of dumping margins.

In a report circulated to WTO members on July 8, the panel found that the Commission used incorrect exchange rates for certain export transactions, resulting in duties that exceeded the properly calculated dumping margin. It recommended that the EU bring the measures into conformity with its obligations under the WTO Anti-Dumping Agreement and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).

The dispute followed EU anti-dumping measures imposed after an investigation into fatty acid imports from Indonesia. Jakarta argued that the Commission had miscalculated dumping margins, continued the investigation after the original complaint was withdrawn, applied an unwritten methodology and incorrectly assessed injury to the EU industry.

Indonesia has maintained that the measures undermined its WTO rights. “The implementation of the EU’s policy has nullified or impaired the benefits accruing to Indonesia, directly or indirectly, under the relevant agreements,” Indonesia’s Deputy Permanent Representative II to the WTO Dandy Satria Iswara said on June 2, 2025.

The EU defended the duties, saying they “will ensure fair competition between fatty acids imported from Indonesia and fatty acids produced domestically.”

While the panel upheld Indonesia’s claim on exchange-rate conversion, it dismissed most of Jakarta’s broader arguments. It found that Indonesia had not demonstrated that the Commission acted inconsistently by continuing the investigation after the complaint was withdrawn or by applying an alleged unwritten methodology to construct normal values and calculate dumping margins.

The panel also rejected Indonesia’s challenges to the Commission’s injury analysis, including claims that it failed to give sufficient weight to positive indicators affecting the EU industry.

Although most of Indonesia’s claims were unsuccessful, the panel concluded that the identified calculation errors had nullified or impaired trade benefits owed to Indonesia under WTO rules.

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Member Announcement | MANDARIN ORIENTAL JAKARTA

Sunday Family Feast with Chef Norman Ismail at Cinnamon

Cinnamon at Mandarin Oriental, Jakarta’s all-day dining restaurant, presents Sunday Family Feast with Chef Norman Ismail, a special family brunch every Sunday in July from 12:00 to 3:00pm.

Known as one of the judges of MasterChef Indonesia Season 13, Chef Norman is a respected Indonesian chef, culinary personality, author, and food entrepreneur whose work celebrates the richness of Nusantara cuisine through a contemporary lens.

Priced at IDR 728,000++ per guest, the brunch invites families and loved ones to gather over a gourmet weekend experience featuring Chef Norman’s signature Indonesian creations. Alongside Chef Norman’s dishes, guests can experience Cinnamon’s extensive brunch spread, including live grill stations, seafood on ice, sushi and sashimi, Chinese barbecue, wok-fried specialties, charcuterie, market-fresh salads, artisan cheese and an indulgent dessert buffet.

In celebration of the school holiday season, the experience also introduces a dedicated Little Foodies station, featuring golden chicken nuggets, mini beef sliders, hot dogs and crispy fish fingers for children to enjoy throughout the afternoon.

At the heart of the brunch is Chef Norman’s culinary artistry, where guests may enjoy special creations such as tenderloin Rossini, lobster bakar gulai beurre blanc, as well as tuna tartare naniura. The brunch also showcases his signature regional creations reimagined for Cinnamon, like iga bakar Plered, bebek sambal galendo, ayam bakakak kare, seafood asam padeh, ikan dabu-dabu, and nasi goreng gongso babat. Each dish reflects the warmth and diversity of Indonesian cuisine, thoughtfully prepared for a convivial Sunday table.

Sunday Family Feast with Chef Norman Ismail is available every Sunday in July at Cinnamon from 12:00 to 3:00pm, priced at IDR 728,000++ per guest. For reservations, please contact Mandarin Oriental, Jakarta via WhatsApp at +62 21 2993 8888, via Instagram at @mo_jakarta, or visit Mandarin Oriental, Jakarta Dining Page.

PRESS RELEASE

Get to Know Our Member | MITRA BISNIS, PT. (RMA INDONESIA)

RMA Group has been serving customers in Indonesia since 2008 through its wholly owned subsidiaries, PT Global Fleet Sales Indonesia and PT Mitra Bisnis, operating under the name RMA Indonesia. In 2016, RMA Indonesia expanded its operations as an Authorized Distributor for Ford Service and Genuine Ford Parts, supporting all existing Ford vehicles with service and parts. In 2019, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., part of the Mahindra Group, launched the Mahindra Scorpio Pik Up in Indonesia together with RMA Indonesia, the official brand holder and distributor of Mahindra in Indonesia. In 2022, PT Mitra Bisnis was appointed as Ford’s Authorized Distributor in Indonesia, launching official dealerships across the country. In 2024, PT Mitra Bisnis was also appointed as Mahindra Farm Equipment’s Authorized Distributor in Indonesia.

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Update is AmCham’s regular newsletter on developments related to investment, the economy, regulations and issues related to doing business in Indonesia. It comes out three times a week. It is edited by AmCham Managing Director Donna Priadi and written by the AmCham Staff.

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